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This monthly publication provides our clients with our latest macroeconomic and insolvency forecasts by country and sector and addresses risks and opportunities in emerging trends such global trade, reindustrialization and the green economy.

 


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Trade Wars: The force weakens

Global trade growth weakens to +2.1% in 2016 in volume. In 2017, it would grow by a modest +3.1%. Demand shocks, the super slump in commodities prices, currency war, and domesticalization (lesser dependence on trade) explain this disappointing performance. In the medium-term, because of structural shifts and financial fragmentation, growth in the volume of world trade is expected to stay below +4% annually. In this context, companies will have to find new alternatives – such as digitalization - to expand their business. 

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Public bumpers for the automotive market​

In 2016, the global automotive market remains divided. On the one hand, Europe, China, and the United States will post strong growth. On the other, India is stagnant, Japan is floundering and Russia and Brazil continue their dizzying drop. Public policies will determine growth in many car markets.

Greater intervention by public policy in market dynamics is one clear trend. The second is the growing fascination with and investment in the future of the sector and in particular electric and autonomous cars.
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The Price of Growth

Global growth will slow down to +2.4% in 2016, its lowest level since the great recession


Global growth could slow this year to +2.4% and might accelerate marginally in 2017 (+2.7%).  The slowdown in prices has pushed down nominal growth, turnovers, and trade. This priceless growth is set to cause a rise in insolvencies by +1% this year and in 2017: the first rise since the great recession. Two reasons: (i) the difficulty to deleverage while debt overhang is important in countries like Brazil and China and sectors such as utilities (ii) commodities-related sectors and countries are still at risk. Net consumers, importers, and debtors benefit from low prices and yields, while net producers and exporters, savers and creditors are having a hard time.
eo_july

  

Economic outlook - Around the World in eight maps

This unique Atlas offers 8 maps depicting economic trends across regions and countries, sectors and industries

  • Global GDP Growth is forecast to slow in 2016 to its lowest level since the great recession

 

  • Global Trade is set to increase in volume in 2016 but decrease in value terms
  • Corporates' Cash Pile increases in value terms but remains stable compared to total assets
  • Days Sales Outstanding should remain stable at 64 days in 2016, but 1 out of 4 companies are paid after 90 days
  • Insolvencies will increase in 2016 for the first time since 2009
  • International Debt Collection: A three-step road to complexity - payment practices, legal action and insolvency
  • Sector Risk Outlook: Top and Flop sectors as of mid-2016
  • Country Risk Outlook: 13 changes in country risk ratings since the beginning of 2016
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Let the Sector games begin

Companies are having an early start at their own Olympics

On a quarterly basis, Euler Hermes measures sector risk for 18 sectors in 72 countries. In 2015, out of 1300 industries (country x sector), we recorded 148 industry downgrades for only 76 upgrades. From Metal in the United States to Food in Turkey to Construction in Saudi Arabia (which went from low risk to high risk in less than a year), 2015 marked a year of renewed non-payment risk for many sectors which were already fragile.
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The 7 dwarfs of global growth

Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook

How will the world economy perform in 2016? In a new report titled “The 7 dwarfs of global growth”, the Economic Research team at Euler Hermes identifies seven key drivers of growth that are too small. This edition of the Economic Outlook explores and analyzes trends in trade, consumerism, investment, insolvencies and other crucial elements of GDP growth. It calls for caution in the face of the “Evil Queen of insolvencies”. One reason for cautious optimism: the “Snow White” of investment is finally reawakening. The report also focuses on regions and hotspots, including China, Brazil, the oil supply glut and commodity prices. It offers a new country risk map and charts, including one that summarizes emerging markets' exposure to Fed interest rate hikes, commodity exports and China.
 
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The insolvency U-Turn

Business insolvency worldwide

This year will be remembered as a turning point: the world realized emerging markets are called emerging for a reason. After a five-year love story with the fatest-growing part of the world, time has come for a reality check.
 

> View the infographic

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Automarket - a live wire 

Special Report

Things are going amazingly (too) fast in today’s world of disruption. The collaborative consumer is king. The Sharing or On-Demand economy and digital transformation – simply the tip of the iceberg – are just a few of the developments that are knocking traditional industries off course. At a time when the NATU (Netflix, Airbnb, Tesla and Uber) are overtaking the GAFA (Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple), with regulators, tax specialists and policy-makers not knowing which way to turn and emerging El Dorados seen reaping the advantages of backwardness (rejecting a conventional form of industrial revolution and skipping straight to the latest technological breakthrough), while the automotive sector is certainly on the road to recovery, it could be in for a rough ride.
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Riding into risks or recovery ?

Macroeconomic Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook

Doing business is like riding a bicycle: to keep your balance you must keep moving; and it has been quite a mud run lately! Companies have for a long time realized that they have to fight relentlessly to avoid getting bogged down by political turbulence, liquidity freeze and bewildering confidence headwinds.
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Focus on the Signal and Ignore the Noise

Macroeconomic Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook

We are almost there! After six years of intense depression, it seems that a weaker euro, lower oil prices and cheap financing costs are doing the trick - the largest economy in the world, Europe, is finally on the mend. It did not come at zero cost for companies and households, but we should rejoice of finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. In the meantime, the world has changed dramatically.
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Global Trade: What's cooking?

Special Report

Like a cyclist against the wind, global trade has been fighting an uphill battle. Yes, the outlook does look better overall and trade-gnation sounds like old news, but competition is fierce. Trade is like a marathon; there are front runners and laggards, hungry competitors, those who burn out and those who fade away. Will eager nations catch up? Will outsiders once again change the rules of the game? 
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Overview 2015. Not such a Grimm tale but no fabled happy ending.

Special Report

As the nights become increasingly dark, at least in the northern hemisphere, those of us with children may pass the time telling fables and short-stories by the fireplace – heaters work too. Euler Hermes’ seven fairy tales on the 2015 economic outlook is a Tiger Mom’s best companion to start (albeit very early) the development of her child’s economic skills. It all starts with: Once upon a time in a global economic mess, and ends with and the Central Banker lived happily ever after.

Couv-1213

 

International debt collection: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Special Report

International debt collection is never the same. Its complexity depends on many factors including one’s relationship with its client. Even though there is a country-specific legal backdrop for collecting your dues (see summaries of Euler Hermes’ country collection profiles that appear in the margins of this report), collection can be summarized in three steps.

> View the infographic

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A rotten apple can spoil the barrel: Payment terms, past dues, non-payments and insolvencies: What to expect in 2015?

Business Insolvency Worldwide

As we are all closing our books for 2014, it is time to take stock on what has happened for businesses around the world, especially when it comes to past dues, non-payments and insolvencies. We have good news: worldwide, insolvencies decreased by -12% this year and past dues have also decreased for the first time since 2011 by almost -30%.
> View the infographic
Couv201210_E

The Global automotive market: Back on four wheels - Sept 2014

Amid geopolitical crises, confidence shocks, and false starts for growth, the disarray seems to be undermining the timid recoveries in most economies since the start of the year. And yet the automotive market seems to be getting its color back. When we look at global production, it seems the crisis has (finally) been erased and auto makers are returning to pre-2009 annual growth rates of around +4%.
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Growth: A giant with feet of clay - July 2014

 
 
The purpose of a business is to grow. This can come in many forms— profits, revenues, market share, brand or community influence. It sounds easy enough, but it's not. Underlying factors can make growth difficult: rapidly changing customers, a softer market, and of course fragile economic policies.
> See our Risk Map 2014                  
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Insolvency World Cup 2014: Who will score fewer insolvencies ? - May 2014

 
 
You thought the Wold Cup would take place in Brzail this year, right? Well we decided otherwise. As flight tickets were too expensive to send the entire team to Brazil, we created our own Wold Cup with homemade FIFA spreadsheets. Goals are slightly different for our first Euler Hermes Insolvencies Wold Cup, the objectives is indeed to score fewer insolvencies!
> See our Insolvency Map 2014
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Hot, bright and soft spots: Who could make or break global growth? - April 2014 

Global Sector Outlook
 
 
While emerging economies remain the primary contributors to global growth, expectations have dampened on the back of the sharp revision of Russia’s growth prospects as well as slowing growth outlooks for Brazil, Turkey and South Africa.
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All things come to those who wait - Green shoots for one out of four sectors - February 2014 

Global Sector Outlook

 

As a recovery starts to take shape, certain sectors plod sorely towards a future that is still much too uncertain. Even though sector risks seem to show an improvement in 2014, certain hotspots remain, in construction, the metal industry and retailing.
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Top ten Game changers in 2014 - Getting back in the game - December 2013 - January 2014 

Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook

 
 
You certainly get the point, the world eventually decided to address its dependency problem, after years on easy money and erratic public spending. Close to overdosing in  2009,  it  has been a bumpy road to recovery since, in
spite of massive counselling - though treatments do not seem to have evolved much in the past century - and plenty of autosuggestion
.
Couv_1200-1201_Patching_things_up_Fewer_insolvencies
 

Patching things up Fewer insolvencies, except in Europe - October-November 2013 

Business Insolvency Worldwide

 

In this special Halloween issue we have chosen to focus on the 351,300 businesses that will close shop in 2014, and this figure concerns only those in our panel of 42 countries. In addition to these insolvencies, millions of other businesses will be at death’s door.
Couv_1199_economic_outlook

Half-baked recovery - September 2013

Macroeconomic and Country Risk Report ​


We have revised  slightly upwards our growth forecastsfor developed countries in 2014 (to +2.1%), owing to improved prospects in the United States (+2.8%), Japan +1.5%) and the eurozone (+0.9%), and slightlydownwards our forecasts for emerging countries (+4.6%) due to a slowdown in growth in Latin America and Asia.
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The Mediterranean: turning the tide - August 2013

 
Special Report ​

In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the eurozone crisis and the uprising in Turkey, what remains of this sea and former source of abundance and power? What of these countries that made us dream in history class? Despite the swell (and globalization) forever characterized by geopolitical, cultural and religious concerns, the Mediterranean is still home to many unparalleled
treasures.
Global Sector Outlook July 2013

Reconciling economic (dis)illusions and financial risks - July 2013

 
Global Sector Outlook ​

For this special Tour de France outlook,we have not chosen to focus on the cycling industry, but rather to look atwhich sectors are on steroids andwhat stimulants they are using – easier to detect than with racing cyclists.
 
 
 
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The world economy at a crossroads - May 2013

 
Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook ​

While the eurozone continues on its merry way and dangerously nears a crossroads, the United States also has a difficult bend to negotiate. In Europe,wear and tear is at the fore, and questions are being asked as to how long the industrial and social fabricwill hold up in the face of faltering public policies and economic limbo.On the other side of the Atlantic, monetary policy is a key concern..
Couv%201194_E_extract  
 

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Corporate insolvencies: the true nature of the Eurozone crisis - April 2013

Business Insolvency Worldwide

Whether onewants it or not, companies have been and continue to be the actual victims of the ongoing European crisis. Corporate insolvencies in the eurozone are expected to increase by +21% in 2013 before ebbing back to a (more)moderate growth rate of +7% in 2014.

Euler Hermes Global sectors outlook

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Europe: still looking for a second wind - March 2013

 
Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook ​
 

 

 

The start to the year has been harsh in Europe. Winter has not wanted to give way to spring, as agreed, and the only positive from this chill is  perhaps its contribution to eurozone growth: nearly one-tenth of a  percentage point of GDP in 2013, according to our estimates. That’s already ​something, isn’t it?

 

 


Euler Hermes Global sectors outlook

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Trade Routes: What has changed, what will change? - February 2013

Special Report

 

 

Two years ago, we analyzed the upheaval in sectors following the 2010 stimulus measures: the rise of Brazil in the food industry, the confirmation of Asia's supremacy in technological goods (...).This special report provides an update of the underlying trends in global trade, beyond headline data, and seeks to identify new risks and opportunities for sectoral routes.


Euler Hermes Global sectors outlook

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Now where did the global demand go? - January 2013

Global Sector Outlook​
 

 

How demographic and behavioural changes impact global demand and its regional variations? What is this global demand to which the companies should adapt themselves? 

"With a genuine sigh of relief some would say that the crisis is over, that the Eurozone remains intact and that the markets are moving forward again. In short, that the worst is now behind us. "​
 

 

2013 world economy forecasts

World heads for sixth year of crisis: something the Maya did not forecast! - December 2012 

Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook ​
 

"Although the economic outlook for 2013 is far from cataclysmic, it nevertheless remains very weak. We are now entering the sixth consecutive year of crisis, a far shorter cycle than for the Mayan calendar (5125 years!) but every bit as worrisome in terms of impact on companies’ balance sheets​."

 
Transport sector economic analysis


Transport: A two speed world - December 2012

Special report

 
"The year 2012 marked a turning point for global transport, whether road, rail, maritime or aviation. Despite a natural market increase driven by demographics and growing wealth, the cards have largely been reshuffled between the world’s regions and transport players."
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Couv 1187_E-reindustrialization_USA.jpg 
 
 


Reindustrialization in USA - November 2012

 
Special report

"The current uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff and the ongoing debt crisis in Europe are the two largest headwinds currently affecting the U.S. economy. Beyond the tumult in the short run, there are some positive macro- and micro-economic factors that have caused us to look more thoroughly to what the ‘new normal’ could look like for the U.S."​




 
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